ChatGPT Predicts we may need over 13 Million workers to Adapt to Climate Change?

As we grapple with the ongoing consequences of climate change, we are already incurring significant costs to adapt to its adverse effects. These costs are projected to rise as average global temperatures continue to increase, which can potentially impact our overall standard of living. An essential question that arises from this predicament is: where will we find the workforce required for these adaptation efforts?

Interestingly, while advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have had negative impacts on many traditional jobs, climate change adaptation presents a unique opportunity for job creation. As AI continues to replace jobs without substantially affecting our cost of living, the workforce needed for climate adaptation could potentially fill this gap without negatively impacting our current living standards.

I consulted ChatGPT to gain insight into the potential adaptation costs and workforce requirements. Assuming an average labor cost of $75,000 (which might be on the higher end when considering the global workforce), it is estimated that the number of workers needed annually could range from 800,000 to over 13 million!

For those interested in understanding the capabilities of GPT-4, I have included the dialogue I had with the AI model to obtain these estimates. The conversation showcases the model's ability to provide detailed information and make educated predictions based on the available data.

Overall, while the costs of adapting to climate change are significant, the potential for new job opportunities in this field is undeniable. It is crucial that we explore innovative solutions to balance these costs and ensure a sustainable future for generations to come.

Climate Adaptation Costs Estimate by ChatGPT-4

User

It appears that we will not meet the Environmental Paris Convention of 1.5% C average warming. Even if we met this it will require significant costs to adapt to a warmer earth. Could you provide some estimated one time costs and annual costs by category for this adaption

ChatGPT

It's important to note that as an AI language model, I cannot predict the future with certainty, but I can provide you with an analysis based on available data up to September 2021. The costs associated with adapting to a 1.5°C average warming target are difficult to estimate accurately, as they can vary greatly depending on the specific region, adaptation measures, and timeframe under consideration. However, I can provide some rough estimates of the costs associated with various adaptation categories.

1. Infrastructure:

One-time costs: $15-30 trillion globally (including investments in climate-resilient buildings, transportation, and energy systems)

Annual costs: $150-300 billion (including maintenance and operations of infrastructure)

2. Coastal protection:

One-time costs: $1-10 trillion globally (including investments in seawalls, dykes, and other coastal defense measures)

Annual costs: $10-50 billion (including maintenance and monitoring of coastal protection measures)

3. Agriculture and food security:

One-time costs: $2-5 trillion globally (including investments in sustainable farming practices, irrigation systems, and crop research)

Annual costs: $20-50 billion (including ongoing agricultural support and research)

4. Water management:

One-time costs: $1-2 trillion globally (including investments in water infrastructure, treatment plants, and desalination facilities)

Annual costs: $10-20 billion (including maintenance and operations of water management systems)

5. Health:

One-time costs: $1-3 trillion globally (including investments in healthcare infrastructure, early warning systems, and disease research)

Annual costs: $10-30 billion (including ongoing disease surveillance, prevention, and treatment)

6. Ecosystem restoration and conservation:

One-time costs: $1-2 trillion globally (including investments in reforestation, habitat restoration, and protected areas)

Annual costs: $10-20 billion (including ongoing conservation and restoration efforts)

7. Disaster risk reduction and management:

One-time costs: $500 billion-1 trillion globally (including investments in early warning systems, evacuation infrastructure, and disaster-resistant buildings)

Annual costs: $5-10 billion (including ongoing disaster preparedness and response)

Please note that these estimates are rough and subject to change as new data becomes available. Additionally, the costs associated with adapting to a 1.5°C average warming target are only a part of the overall climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts needed to address the challenges presented by climate change. Investing in mitigation efforts, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources, can help limit the overall costs associated with climate change adaptation.

User

Can you update this with a breakdown of direct labour cost versus other costs.

ChatGPT

Breaking down the adaptation costs into direct labor costs and other costs is challenging due to the wide range of sectors and activities involved. However, I can provide a rough estimate of the percentage of labor costs in each category, based on the nature of the work involved. Please note that these estimates are subject to change and should be taken with caution.

1. Infrastructure:

Labor costs: 25-35% of total costs

Other costs: 65-75% (including materials, equipment, land acquisition, planning, and design)

2. Coastal protection:

Labor costs: 20-30% of total costs

Other costs: 70-80% (including materials, equipment, land acquisition, and engineering)

3. Agriculture and food security:

Labor costs: 30-40% of total costs

Other costs: 60-70% (including materials, equipment, research, and technology)

4. Water management:

Labor costs: 25-35% of total costs

Other costs: 65-75% (including materials, equipment, land acquisition, and engineering)

5. Health:

Labor costs: 40-50% of total costs

Other costs: 50-60% (including materials, equipment, research, and technology)

6. Ecosystem restoration and conservation:

Labor costs: 35-45% of total costs

Other costs: 55-65% (including materials, equipment, land acquisition, and research)

7. Disaster risk reduction and management:

Labor costs: 30-40% of total costs

Other costs: 60-70% (including materials, equipment, planning, and technology)

These estimates are not exhaustive, and the actual labor cost percentages can vary depending on the specific projects and implementation strategies adopted. It's essential to consider that the direct labor costs can be influenced by factors such as wage rates, labor productivity, and regional differences in labor markets. Other costs can include capital expenses, overheads, and administrative expenses associated with the adaptation measures.

User

Great but can you actual include the calculate amount in addition to the %

ChatGPT

Of course! Based on the previous cost estimates and the percentage breakdown between labor and other costs, here are the rough calculated amounts for one-time costs and annual costs in each category:

1. Infrastructure:

One-time costs:

- Labor: $3.75-10.5 trillion

- Other costs: $11.25-19.5 trillion

Annual costs:

- Labor: $37.5-105 billion

- Other costs: $112.5-195 billion

2. Coastal protection:

One-time costs:

- Labor: $200 billion-3 trillion

- Other costs: $800 billion-7 trillion

Annual costs:

- Labor: $2-15 billion

- Other costs: $8-35 billion

3. Agriculture and food security:

One-time costs:

- Labor: $600 billion-2 trillion

- Other costs: $1.4-3 trillion

Annual costs:

- Labor: $6-20 billion

- Other costs: $14-30 billion

4. Water management:

One-time costs:

- Labor: $250 billion-700 billion

- Other costs: $750 billion-1.3 trillion

Annual costs:

- Labor: $2.5-7 billion

- Other costs: $7.5-13 billion

5. Health:

One-time costs:

- Labor: $400 billion-1.5 trillion

- Other costs: $600 billion-1.5 trillion

Annual costs:

- Labor: $4-15 billion

- Other costs: $6-15 billion

6. Ecosystem restoration and conservation:

One-time costs:

- Labor: $350 billion-900 billion

- Other costs: $650 billion-1.1 trillion

Annual costs:

- Labor: $3.5-9 billion

- Other costs: $6.5-11 billion

7. Disaster risk reduction and management:

One-time costs:

- Labor: $150 billion-400 billion

- Other costs: $350 billion-600 billion

Annual costs:

- Labor: $1.5-4 billion

- Other costs: $3.5-6 billion

Please note that these calculated amounts are based on the rough estimates provided earlier and should be taken with caution. They are subject to change as new data becomes available and can vary depending on the specific projects and strategies adopted.

User

This is for a 1.5 degree increase. Would this a straigtline increase for % increase in warming or would there be an exponential affect

ChatGPT

The relationship between the percentage increase in warming and the costs of adaptation is not a simple linear function. The impacts of climate change and the required adaptation measures become more complex and challenging as the average global temperature increases. In many cases, there can be an exponential or non-linear effect on the costs associated with climate change impacts and adaptation.

For example, as global temperatures rise, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, storms, and floods, are expected to increase. This can result in significantly higher costs for infrastructure repair, disaster relief efforts, and health care. Additionally, higher temperatures can lead to more pronounced impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources, further increasing the costs of adaptation.

Some areas may experience diminishing returns on investments as the costs of adaptation measures increase while their effectiveness decreases. For instance, protecting coastal areas from rising sea levels becomes more difficult and expensive as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. In some cases, it may no longer be feasible to protect certain areas, requiring investments in managed retreat or relocation instead.

Overall, the relationship between the percentage increase in warming and the costs of adaptation is not a straightforward linear function. As temperatures continue to rise, the costs of adaptation measures are likely to increase at a higher rate, reflecting the growing complexity and severity of climate change impacts. However, the precise relationship between warming and adaptation costs will depend on various factors, such as regional vulnerability, the effectiveness of implemented measures, and the extent of greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

User

As a thought exercise could you predict the % increase for every 20% increase in warming up to 4 decrees

ChatGPT

As a thought exercise, I can attempt to provide a rough estimate of the percentage increase in adaptation costs for every 20% increase in warming, up to 4 degrees Celsius. Please note that these estimates are speculative and based on the assumption that the relationship between warming and adaptation costs is non-linear, with costs accelerating as the temperature rises.

Let's start by looking at the percentage increase in warming:

1.5°C (baseline) - 100% (reference for comparison)

1.8°C (20% increase) - approximately 120-140%

2.1°C (40% increase) - approximately 150-200%

2.4°C (60% increase) - approximately 200-300%

2.7°C (80% increase) - approximately 300-450%

3.0°C (100% increase) - approximately 450-650%

3.3°C (120% increase) - approximately 650-900%

3.6°C (140% increase) - approximately 900-1,200%

3.9°C (160% increase) - approximately 1,200-1,600%

4.0°C (166.7% increase) - approximately 1,300-1,700%

These estimates are based on the assumption that the costs of adapting to climate change increase at a higher rate as the average global temperature increases, reflecting the growing complexity and severity of climate change impacts. However, it's important to note that these estimates are speculative and subject to various uncertainties, such as regional vulnerability, effectiveness of implemented measures, and the extent of greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

User

Can you provide me the number of total labourers under each scenario assuming an average annual cost of labourer to be 75000

ChatGPT

Using the estimated labor costs provided earlier for a 1.5°C warming scenario and the speculative percentage increases in adaptation costs for different levels of warming, we can estimate the number of total laborers under each scenario, assuming an average annual cost of labor per worker of $75,000.

Please note that these calculations are based on the annual labor costs provided earlier, and they are rough estimates.

1.5°C (baseline) - 100% (reference for comparison):

Total annual labor cost: $58.5 billion (sum of labor costs from all categories)

Number of laborers: 780,000

1.8°C (20% increase) - approximately 120-140%:

Total annual labor cost: $70.2 billion - $81.9 billion

Number of laborers: 936,000 - 1,092,000

2.1°C (40% increase) - approximately 150-200%:

Total annual labor cost: $87.75 billion - $117 billion

Number of laborers: 1,170,000 - 1,560,000

2.4°C (60% increase) - approximately 200-300%:

Total annual labor cost: $117 billion - $175.5 billion

Number of laborers: 1,560,000 - 2,340,000

2.7°C (80% increase) - approximately 300-450%:

Total annual labor cost: $175.5 billion - $263.25 billion

Number of laborers: 2,340,000 - 3,510,000

3.0°C (100% increase) - approximately 450-650%:

Total annual labor cost: $263.25 billion - $380.25 billion

Number of laborers: 3,510,000 - 5,070,000

3.3°C (120% increase) - approximately 650-900%:

Total annual labor cost: $380.25 billion - $526.5 billion

Number of laborers: 5,070,000 - 7,020,000

3.6°C (140% increase) - approximately 900-1,200%:

Total annual labor cost: $526.5 billion - $702 billion

Number of laborers: 7,020,000 - 9,360,000

3.9°C (160% increase) - approximately 1,200-1,600%:

Total annual labor cost: $702 billion - $936 billion

Number of laborers: 9,360,000 - 12,480,000

4.0°C (166.7% increase) - approximately 1,300-1,700%:

Total annual labor cost: $760.5 billion - $994.5 billion

Number of laborers: 10,140,000 - 13,260,000

These estimates are subject to uncertainties and should be taken with caution. The actual number of laborers required under each scenario may vary depending on regional vulnerability, the effectiveness of implemented measures, and the extent of greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

User

By the way what average labour cost did you use in calculating your costs

ChatGPT

In my previous responses, I provided rough estimates for the adaptation costs associated with a 1.5°C average warming target, as well as for various scenarios up to 4°C warming. I did not assume a specific average labor cost while calculating those costs. Instead, I provided an estimated breakdown of labor costs as a percentage of the total costs for each adaptation category.

When you requested to calculate the number of laborers under each scenario, you provided an average annual labor cost of $75,000 per worker. I used this figure to estimate the number of laborers required for each scenario, based on the annual labor costs I had provided earlier. It's important to note that the actual average labor cost may vary depending on factors such as regional differences in labor markets, wage rates, and labor productivity.

User

What would you predict as an average wage cost for this type of adaption work

ChatGPT

Predicting an average wage cost for climate change adaptation work is challenging due to the wide range of sectors, occupations, and regional differences involved. However, I can provide a rough estimate based on the data available up to September 2021 and the types of occupations that are likely to be involved in climate adaptation work.

Considering that adaptation efforts span across various industries, such as construction, engineering, agriculture, health, environmental science, and disaster management, we can estimate an average wage cost for these types of jobs. 

In developed countries, the average annual wage cost for climate adaptation-related work could range between $50,000 to $100,000, depending on the job's complexity and required skill level. In developing countries, the average wage cost is likely to be lower, ranging from $10,000 to $30,000 annually.

It's essential to consider that these are rough estimates and that the actual average wage cost can be influenced by factors such as regional labor markets, the specific occupation, and the industry in which the work is being carried out. Additionally, wage costs may change over time due to inflation, economic growth, and shifts in the labor market.

For a more accurate prediction, it would be necessary to examine specific job titles, sectors, and regional differences in more detail.